WTC 2023-25 Scenarios: The Race for the World Test Championship Final

The competition for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final is intensifying after a thrilling few months of Test cricket. Four teams are still in contention for the final, which is scheduled to take place in England in mid-2025.

This article examines the qualification scenarios for each team, outlining their maximum achievable percentages. Before diving in, here’s a breakdown of the scoring system for the WTC:

WTC 2023-25: Can South Africa Make It to the Final?

Australia and India were the early frontrunners to reach the final. However, New Zealand’s stunning 3-0 series victory in India has dramatically changed the dynamics. Additionally, Australia and India are set to face off in a five-match Test series later this year, ensuring that at least one—if not both—may miss the WTC Final in 2025.

Below, we analyze the teams that are still in contention, their upcoming fixtures, and their possible outcomes based on hypothetical scenarios.

India

• Current Points: 110

• Current Percentage: 61.11%

• Remaining Fixtures: 4 Tests against Australia (Away)

India’s unexpected 3-0 defeat to New Zealand has put them in a tough spot. To secure a place in the final, India must win at least four Tests in their upcoming series against Australia. However, they have made a strong start by defeating the hosts by 295 runs in Perth.

If India achieves a 4-1 series win, their final percentage will stand at 64.04%. This will reduce Australia’s percentage to 50 before their two-Test series in Sri Lanka. In such a scenario, Australia’s maximum percentage would be 55.26.

South Africa

• Current Points: 64

• Current Percentage: 59.26%

• Remaining Fixtures: 1 Test against Sri Lanka (Home), 2 Tests against Pakistan (Home)

South Africa is in a favorable position to qualify for the final. Wicket-keeper Kyle Verreynne has acknowledged that the team is focused on reaching the WTC Final. If South Africa wins all their remaining home Tests against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, they will finish with a percentage of 69.44%. They’ve already made a strong start by defeating Sri Lanka by 233 runs in Durban.

This percentage should be enough, given that India and Australia will take points off each other. South Africa’s maximum percentage of 69.44% also surpasses New Zealand’s potential high of 64.29%.

If South Africa splits their series against Sri Lanka 1-1 and defeats Pakistan 2-0, their percentage will drop to 61.11%. Qualification will then depend on results from other teams, particularly in the Sri Lanka-Australia and India-Australia series.

Australia

• Current Points: 90

• Current Percentage: 57.69%

• Remaining Fixtures: 4 Tests against India (Home), 2 Tests against Sri Lanka (Away)

Australia currently sits in second place after a significant 295-run defeat to India in Perth. Historically, India has dominated Australia in recent years, and the Australians have also struggled in Sri Lanka, losing four of their last five Tests there.

• If Australia wins all six remaining Tests, they will finish with a percentage of 71.05%.

• A 3-1 victory against India, combined with a 1-1 draw in Sri Lanka, will leave them with a percentage of 62.28%.

• A 2-2 draw in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) series would drop Australia’s percentage to 57.84% heading into the Sri Lanka series.

A 2-0 win against Sri Lanka following the 2-2 BGT draw would bring their percentage to 62.28%, which might suffice depending on the performances of South Africa and New Zealand. However, a 1-1 draw in Sri Lanka would reduce Australia’s percentage to 57.02%, which is unlikely to guarantee qualification.

New Zealand

• Current Points: 72

• Current Percentage: 54.55%

• Remaining Fixtures: 3 Tests against England (Home)

New Zealand’s qualification hopes appeared slim after a 2-0 series loss in Sri Lanka. However, their remarkable 3-0 series win in India has brought them back into contention.

To qualify, New Zealand must win all three of their remaining Tests against England, which would take their percentage to 64.29%. A 2-1 series win would leave them at 57.14%, which is unlikely to secure a spot in the final.

Sri Lanka

• Current Points: 60

• Current Percentage: 50%

• Remaining Fixtures: 1 Test against South Africa (Away), 2 Tests against Australia (Home)

Sri Lanka had been in fine form, winning their last three Tests before suffering a heavy 233-run defeat to South Africa in Durban.

If Sri Lanka manages a 1-1 draw against South Africa and defeats Australia 2-0, their percentage will rise to 61.53%. However, two 1-1 draws in their remaining series will leave them at 53.84%, which won’t be enough to secure a place in the final.